Archive for November, 2008

November 26, 2008: 3:05 pm: bcbc's playhouse

According to the Washington Post, President-Elect Barack Obama nominated former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to lead his Economic Recovery Advisory Board (ERAB). The ERAB Dream Team is being assembled in an attempt to pull the United States (and maybe the rest of the world) out of the Most-Watched and Well-Documented Economic Crisis in Human History. 

Volcker, 81, was Fed Chair under Presidents Carter and Reagan and is now charged with bringing fresh thinking and “vigorous oversight” to the Obama Administration’s efforts to end the Recession (hopefully by not bringing on a full-on Depression).

Obama said in announcing the nomination, “The walls of the echo chamber can sometimes keep out fresh voices and new ways of thinking–and those who serve in Washington don’t always have a ground-level sense of which programs and policies are working for people, and which aren’t.”

If octogenarian Volcker is a “fresh voice” with a “ground-level” grasp of regular folks’ money problems, who else will serve on the ERAB?

Our sources on the Hill suggest that Obama and Volcker are pulling out all of the stops and not limiting their choices for ERAB members by age or corporeal status.

We understand that a remarkable variety of negotiations are ongoing with the following persons:

Pygmalion of Tyre, founding King of Carthage. Established international trade in the Mediterranean.

Pioneering Silk Road International trade negotiator Zhang Qian. Experienced in the Far and Middle East.

Islamic Economist, Advisor and Writer Abu_Yusuf. Very experienced in the Middle East - in fact, you could say he wrote the book.

Really really Smart Guy, Albert_Einstein. Hey, if you’re going to save the world by thinking, wouldn’t you want Einstein on the Team? [Sorry, Hawking fans.]

Former Warden of the Royal Mint, Sir Isaac Newton. [Sorry, Leibnitz fans.]

Former French leader, Maria Antonia Josepha Johanna von Habsburg-Lothringen.

Dutch mathematician and astronomer, Willem De Sitter. De Sitter reconciled Einstein’s theories of Relativity with Edwin Hubble’s observations of an ever-expanding universe, which should come in handy for figuring out how to pay for a Global Bailout.

Economist Karl Marx. Hey, he was an economist, and if Hillary Clinton can be Secretary of State, and Robert Gates Secretary of Defense, why not?

And all-around Shaqtastically Big Thinker, basketball star Shaquille O’Neal. Hey, we’re thinking Big here.

Documenting all of the results and recommendations will be the Three ERAB Secretaries, mathematician and writer Charles Dodgson, with writers Theodor Giesel and Mary Shelley.

On the Do Not Call List: Alan Greenspan and Christopher Hitchens.

We were surprised to see no mention of President Franklin Roosevelt either way…

Some are also calling for Scrooge McDuck, but rumors suggest that Volcker believes he’s too animated to fit into the Team.

Finally, rumor has it that Team ERAB is negotiating sponsorship deals with Nike, Pepsid-AC, Viagra, and Preparation H to help defray costs to the American taxpayers.

This is nice, but no matter what Team ERAB does, we’re paying for it.

bc

© Copyright by the author 2008, all rights reserved.

November 16, 2008: 1:03 pm: bcbc's playhouse, The Monday Morning Cosmologist

The Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach writes about the new toilets being delivered to the International Space Station on Space Shuttle Endeavour, which recycle human waste into drinkable water:

“Standing between the urine and the consumable end product are muscular apparatus that distill, filter, heat and chemically transmogrify the liquid. The instruments include a catalytic reactor, a gas separator, multi-filtration beds, a particulate filter, a reactor health sensor, a microbial check valve, a fluids control and pump assembly, and a pressure control and purge assembly. This removes almost all the organic molecules from the liquid.” 

Love the use of the word “transmogrify.” And ”almost.” 

On a related topic, I’ve been reading a paper by Jason Matheny, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction” which, aside from being highly humorous in spots (for those of us with a dark sense of it), is an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of preventing human extinction. In other words, “How much is it worth to save humanity?”

Naturally, one of the options discussed is avoiding total human extinction by isolating or sheltering some people from the risk of earth-based catastrophic events such as asteroid impacts, pandemics (natural or man-made), nuclear war, Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) from nearby stars, and drastic climate change. Means of achieving this could be in the form of Earth-based sheltered communities, or space-based colonies in Earth orbit, or on the Moon, Mars, etc. In any of these cases, such recycling technology as Joel describes would be required for self-sustaining communities with few outside resources available, particularly water.

Matheny’s paper is a little dated in spots (it was published a year ago):
“For instance, if we invest our money now in a stock market with an average 5% real annual return, in a century we will have 130 times more money to spend on extinction countermeasures (assuming we survive the century). This reasoning could be extended indefinitely (as long as we survive). This could be an argument for investing in stocks rather than extinction countermeasures if: the rate of return on capital is exogenous to the rate of social savings, the average rate of return on capital is higher than the rate of technological change in extinction countermeasures, and the marginal cost effectiveness of extinction countermeasures does not decrease at a rate equal to or greater than the return on capital.”

As if the state of my 401K isn’t enough to make me want to jump off of a building?

It seems that NASA is shooting for the stars with these state-of-the (ahem) art recycling toilets, and perhaps we will need something like them if we decide that we’re worth insuring over the long term. To that end, I’ve counseled my children to reconsider their plans for law school in favor of a future in plumbing after getting a Bachelor’s in Information Technology, of course. [This could position them well for an early career for data waste management in Government IT shops before blasting off into the Wild Blue Yonder of solid and liquid waste management for NASA.] 

Something that NASA nor Joel mention, though would be much on my mind — recycling human waste in a closed environment would be one thing, and even turning the solid waste into some sort of compost or fertilizer to grow fresh foods would be acceptable, but somebody needs to figure out how to develop an add-on to this Galactic Standard Techno-Throne system for recycling toilet paper, pronto.

Well, and there do not appear to be any special instructions for jiggling the high-tech handle, either. I would think this would be very important in orbit, where the nearest plumber is 200 miles away and falling behind at 17,000 miles an hour.

I’ll leave you with a thought from Matheny’s paper:

Farthest out in time are astronomical risks. In one billion years, the sun will begin its red giant stage, increasing terrestrial temperatures above 1,000 degrees, boiling off our atmosphere, and eventually forming a planetary nebula, making Earth inhospitable to life (Sackmann, Boothroyd, & Kraemer, 1993; Ward & Brownlee, 2002). If we colonize other solar systems, we could survive longer than our sun, perhaps another 100 trillion years, when all stars begin burning out (Adams & Laughlin, 1997). We might survive even longer if we exploit nonstellar energy sources. But it is hard to imagine how humanity will survive beyond the decay of nuclear matter expected in 10 [to the] 32[nd] to 10 [to the] 41[st] years (Adams & Laughlin, 1997).3 Physics seems to support Kafka’s remark that ‘[t]here is infinite hope, but not for us.’”

An infinite future for humanity without toilet paper sounds hopeless to me, too. If there’s no cost-effective way to save humanity with TP, then perhaps we deserve to be wiped out.

bc

November 2, 2008: 8:46 am: bcbc's playhouse

In the face of political disaster, has the GOP become the Donner Party?

Instead of weathering the Perfect Political S**tStorm of 2008 on the National Campaign Trail, it looks like everyone of import has disembarked from the Conestoga Wagons of the Straight Talk Express into roadside diners, as Republican candidates, staff, and media engage in a most basic form of self-preservation.

In some respects, it appears to be a free-for-all feeding frenzy that even wolves would probably have no stomach for (we’re thinking that the last seven days of this campaign has been Shark Week) - Sarah Palin’s campaign appears to be learning quickly and is taking a few choice bites out of others after losing a few pounds of flesh early on.

If Republican representatives trying to keep House and Senate seats could not be trying harder to excuse themselves from the Bush Administration’s table, now they must be looking at the snipping and backbiting in the McCain/Palin campaign (Is that the Kid’s Table?) and wondering what to do next. In this case, some are bringing carving tools and flatware.

As it turns out, even during this most lean year for the Republicans, there’s always some Red Meat around… and even Ted Stevens’ tough old hide – but don’t call it Stevens Jerky - can help some GOP candidates survive if they don’t have anything else to feed on.

We thought it would be interesting to consider the GOP General Election Campaign timeline and see how it lines up with selections from the Donner Party timeline as on Wikipedia to see if we can draw any parallels

April - George Donner and his Party set out for the California Trail, hungry for the Promised Land.  They believe that if they stick to the recipe that’s served so well for so long, they’ll end up fat and happy.

Republican Presidential nominee John McCain and his Party set out on the Campaign Trail, hungry for the Promised Land. They believe that if they stick to the recipe that’s served so well for so long, they can continue being fat and happy.

Neither knows for sure what’s going to be dished out along the way, or what they’ll end up having to do to survive. Or what the smell of cooking pork will make them think of.

May-July- Quiet months for the Parties as they pick their way over the heartland. Donner and McCain find that they’ve lost their Keyes; Sarah from the Donner and Alan from the Republican. Despite that, many people consider them a lock. In reality, they’re far from pie-safe, and falling behind their timers.

From the kitchen, rumblings of a Meal Going Bad can be heard — people are suffering from severe gas pains, and starting to call for their sous chefs, which is never a good thing.

August – Final preparations for the Parties are being made. The heat is turned up on Donner and McCain as they decide to take shortcuts –- and there’s no short cut to short cake, as they say. Donner strays from the California roll he’s on, and makes a decision to take the Hastings pass despite being warned against it. McCain considers running mates for his ticket, and strays from the recipe of making a safe choice and vetting it well. The Parties are hungry, and need sustenance for November. Cakes and candies may taste good for a short time, but they’re no substitute for a well-balanced meal.

McCain and other Republican Party candidates have been taking bites out of Astonishingly Unpopular Top Ironic Chef George W. Bush, and are emboldened by his unresponsiveness, though they aren’t surprised.

September – After searching hither and yon for his final ingredient for the GOP main course at the Party Convention, McCain impulsively chooses an item not on the menu, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Initially seen as a tangy dessert item for the Far Right to balance McCain’s Maverick-spiced meat and potatoes, it turns out Palin is actually familiar with hunting, field-dressing and preparing wild game. In retrospect, this may be an indicator of things to come — particularly with the Georgetown Cocktail Party and Rubber Chicken Circuit crowds.

Not long after the convention, problems that have been simmering for a long time boil over. The great big pot of American economy starts burning, and the Republicans try to save the concoction by throwing everything but the kitchen sink at it. Unfortunately, everyone at the Party rushes in to try to save it – some trying to stir, some trying to change the recipe on the fly, others fiddling with the heat - and the whole thing becomes a burnt unappealing inedible mess. The Party is ruined — there’s nothing to eat and still a lot of hungry people. And the Democrats’ buffet, once serving only George W. Bush, Cheney and Rove, is now openly serving all Republicans.

In September, Donner realized that everything was going wrong, that the Party was heading for trouble – out of food, out of water, and a rising mania stemming from fear and hunger - and that maybe he should have listened to James Clyman when he advised against the Hastings Cutoff, after all.

In that same month, years later, McCain realizes that everything is going wrong, and that the Party is heading for trouble – they are short on money, falling behind in the polls as the economy fell like a soufflé’ gone wrong, and fickle ladyfingers of blame are being pointed within the GOP rather than at the Democrats. Fear is the most effective utensil for keeping what’s left of the Party going. He suspects that Fred Thompson knew exactly what he was doing, after all.

October – There’s no substantive sustenance for the Faithful, and cannibalistic chaos breaks out within the Party: whippings, stabbings, denunciations and endorsements on the Sunday talk shows, fistfights, revelations in the press, guilty verdicts, findings indicating abuses of office, and support withdrawn like a formal dinner chair pulled out from under Curly Howard. Ron Paul’s name is mentioned without so much as a snicker-doodle.

It’s every man and woman for themselves, as they scramble to survive the approaching November weather. Prominent Republicans who are not running for office and the Right Wing media are taking huge bites out of the GOP in general, and of McCain and Palin in particular. There are whispers that Palin is keeping herself alive for 2012 by taking small bites out of McCain, and when Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is convicted of lying to hide illegal gifts, she takes a big shank for herself. [Is she covetous of Stevens’ seat, now that she’s developed a taste for National Politics? If she could, would she name herself to that seat?] Several Republicans are sneaking forkfuls of Palin for Troopergate, for overdressing for dinner, even for the way she speaks on- and off-camera.

Grand Old Partygoers at every level are lining up right next to Democrats in feeding off of the Republican leadership in order to stay alive. Though the Dems are enjoying their pieces a great deal, flavored with the satisfying spice of Karma.

McCain refuses to take big chunks of Bush and/or other Republicans, and has found himself as the Guest of Honor in the GOP piranha tank. Halloween could not come at a more appropriate time for the Republican Party.

The Donner Party only had 48 survivors, but it only takes 41 to prevent a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, as the GOP leadership well knows. They may have left McCain’s Campaign for dead, but it is probably too late. The Relief Parties will undertake an accounting next year, but in the meantime, a more basic rule is employed — Do What’s Needed to Survive in the House and Senate and at the state and county levels. Just like in the Donner Pass.

Republican Politicians – they’re what’s for dinner.

Even for Republican Politicians.

Please Note that we didn’t refer to them as “the other other white meat.”

bc